Canadian Natural Resources Monthly Outlook (December 2025)

Canadian Natural Res...

TSX:CNQ

C$ 47,96

C$-0,10 (-0,21%)

47,96 C$

C$-0,10 (-0,21%)

End-of-day quote: 12/05/2025

Canadian Natural Resources Stock Value

Currently, analysts rate TSX:CNQ as Outperform.

Outperform

Canadian Natural Resources Company Info

EPS Growth 5Y

16,83%

Market Cap

C$99,91 B

Long-Term Debt

C$16,42 B

Short Interest

2,38%

Annual earnings

03/05/2026

Dividend

C$2,35

Dividend Yield

4,89%

Founded

1973

Industry

Energy

Country

Canada

ISIN Number

CA1363851017

Website

http://www.cnrl.com

Analyst Price Target

C$53,00

10.51%

Last Update: 12/06/2025

Analysts: 20

Highest Price Target C$62,00

Average Price Target C$53,00

Lowest Price Target C$47,00

In the last five quarters, Canadian Natural Resources’s Price Target has fallen from C$58,62 to C$54,82 - a -6,48% decrease. Eight analysts predict that Canadian Natural Resources’s share price will increase in the coming year, reaching C$53,00. This would represent an increase of 10,51%.

Top growth stocks in the energy sector (5Y.)

What does Canadian Natural Resources do?

Canadian Natural Resources Limited (Canadian Natural), a Canadian based senior independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, production, marketing and sale of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs). During 2024, the company increased its contracted crude oil transportation capacity to 256,500 bbl/d, expanding its committed capacity to Canada’s West Coast and to the United States Gulf Coast (‘USGC’) to approximately 23% of 2025 targeted liquids...

During 2024, the company increased its contracted crude oil transportation capacity to 256,500 bbl/d, expanding its committed capacity to Canada’s West Coast and to the United States Gulf Coast (‘USGC’) to approximately 23% of 2025 targeted liquids production. After the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline (TMX) was successfully commissioned in the second quarter of 2024, the company increased its capacity on the TMX by 75,000 bbl/d to a total of 169,000 bbl/d. The company also increased its capacity on the Flanagan South pipeline in 2024 by an additional 55,000 bbl/d for a total of 77,500 bbl/d, further expanding the company's heavy oil diversification and market access to the USGC. The company also has committed capacity of 10,000 bbl/d on the Keystone Base pipeline, with direct access to the USGC.

In December 2024, the company completed acquisitions of Chevron Canada Limited's (‘Chevron’) Alberta assets, which included Chevron's 20% interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) and a 70% operated interest in light crude oil and liquids-rich Duvernay assets. As a result of these acquisitions, the company now owns 90% of AOSP, which includes the Muskeg River and Jackpine mines, the Scotford Upgrader, and Quest.

The company’s principal core regions of operations are western Canada, the UK sector of the North Sea, and Offshore Africa.

The company operates and maintains a large working interest in a majority of the prospects in which it participates. The company’s business approach is to maintain large project inventories and production diversification among each of its products: SCO (synthetic crude oil), natural gas, light and medium crude oil, and NGLs, bitumen (thermal oil), primary heavy crude oil, and Pelican Lake heavy crude oil. The company's Midstream assets, primarily consisting of two operated pipeline systems (ECHO and Pelican Lake), and a 50% working interest in an 84-megawatt cogeneration plant at Primrose, provide cost-effective infrastructure supporting the company's heavy crude oil and bitumen operations. Midstream assets also include a 50% equity interest in the North West Redwater Partnership.

The company’s Canadian crude oil production is marketed to purchasers located in Canada and other international destinations. Purchasers that take delivery in Canada may subsequently export those products to other international destinations using their own transportation. The company has contracted pipeline capacity for approximately 25% of its liquids production. This includes contracted capacity on the Flanagan South pipeline (77,500 bbl/d) and the Keystone Base pipeline (10,000 bbl/d). The company also has contracted capacity on TMX (169,000 bbl/d), which gives the company the option to sell either to customers in Western Canada or to international markets. The company also markets natural gas directly to purchasers in both Canada and other international markets. Natural gas is distributed to customers in Canada via the TC Canadian Mainline and other pipelines, such as the Enbridge Westcoast system. The company’s offshore production from its North Sea and West African operations is sold primarily into European markets.

Northeast British Columbia

The northeast British Columbia region holds a significant portion of the Montney formation and provides exploration and development opportunities in combination with significant controlled infrastructure. The exploration strategy focuses on comprehensive evaluation through two-dimensional seismic, three-dimensional seismic, and targeting economic prospects close to existing infrastructure.

This region also includes the Septimus, Umbach/Nig, and Townsend Montney natural gas assets with owned natural gas processing capacity, as well as dedicated third-party natural gas processing capacity. The southern portion of this region encompasses the company’s BC Foothills assets, where natural gas is produced from the deep Mississippian and Triassic-aged reservoirs in this highly structural area.

Northwest Alberta

This region is located west of Edmonton, Alberta, along the border of British Columbia and Alberta, and provides a premium land base in the deep basin, multi-zone, liquids-rich natural gas and light crude oil fairway. Northwest Alberta has a significant Duvernay, Montney, and Spirit River land base, and provides exploration and development opportunities in combination with an extensive portfolio of owned and operated infrastructure. In this region, the company produces light crude oil, NGLs, and natural gas from multiple, often technically complex horizons, with formation depths ranging from 700 to 4,500 meters. Locations are identified with two-dimensional and three-dimensional seismic to predict channel and shoreface fairways. The southwest portion of this region also contains significant Foothills assets with natural gas produced from the deep Mississippian and Triassic-aged reservoirs.

Northern Plains

This region starts just south of Edmonton, Alberta, and extends north to Fort McMurray, Alberta, and from northwest Alberta into western Saskatchewan. Over most of the region, both sweet and sour natural gas reserves are produced from numerous productive horizons at depths up to approximately 1,500 meters. In the southwest portion of the region, light crude oil and NGLs are also encountered at slightly greater depths. The company targets low-risk exploration and development opportunities in this area.

In this region, the company’s holdings of primary heavy crude oil production are the result of Crown land purchases and acquisitions. The company's 100% owned ECHO Pipeline system is also located in this region. The ECHO Pipeline has a capacity of up to 78,000 bbl/d, which enables the company to transport its own production volumes at a reduced production cost. This pipeline enhances the company’s ability to control the full spectrum of costs associated with the development and marketing of its heavy crude oil.

Included in the northern part of this region, approximately 200 miles north of Edmonton, Alberta, are the company’s holdings at Pelican Lake. These assets produce Pelican Lake heavy crude oil from the Wabiskaw formation with gravities of 12°-17° API. Production expenses are low due to the absence of sand production and its associated disposal requirements, as well as the gathering and pipeline facilities in place. The company has the major ownership position in the necessary infrastructure, roads, drilling pads, gathering and sales pipelines, batteries, gas plants, and compressors, to ensure economic development of the large crude oil pool located on the lands, including the 100% owned and operated Pelican Lake Pipeline and three major oil batteries with a capacity of 85,000 bbl/d.

The company has a 100% interest in the operating thermal SAGD assets at Jackfish and in the undeveloped Pike lands located adjacent to Jackfish. The infrastructure at Jackfish consists of three processing plants and gathering systems that have a combined capacity of 120,000 bbl/d. Drilling and pipeline development in support of the Pike 1 project commenced in late 2024, with the company targeting to drill two Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) pads in the first half of 2025, which will be tied into the existing Jackfish facilities. These two pads are targeted to come on production in 2026 and are expected to keep the Jackfish plants at full capacity.

Southern Plains and Southeast Saskatchewan

The Southern Plains region is principally located south of the Northern Plains region to the United States border, and extending into western Saskatchewan. The Southeast Saskatchewan area is located in the southeastern portion of the province, extending into Manitoba, and produces primarily light sour crude oil from multiple productive horizons found at depths up to 2,700 meters.

Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading

Horizon: The company owns a 100% working interest in its Horizon oil sands leases, which are located about 70 kilometers north of Fort McMurray, Alberta. In 2021, the company completed an acquisition of a 5% net carried interest on an existing company oil sands lease.

The oil sands resource at Horizon Oil Sands is found in the Cretaceous McMurray Formation, which is further subdivided into three informal members: lower, middle, and upper. Most of Horizon’s oil sands resource is found within the lower and middle McMurray Formation at depths ranging from 50 to 100 meters below the surface.

Horizon Oil Sands, which is accessible by private road and private airstrip, includes surface oil sands mining, bitumen extraction, bitumen upgrading, and associated infrastructure. Mining of the oil sands is done using conventional truck and shovel technology. The ore is then processed through extraction and froth treatment facilities to produce bitumen, which is upgraded on-site into SCO (synthetic crude oil). The SCO is transported from the site by pipeline to the Edmonton area for distribution. Two on-site cogeneration plants with a combined design capacity of 180 megawatts provide power and steam for operations.

AOSP: In 2017, the company acquired a combined direct and indirect 70% interest in AOSP, which is an oil sands mining and upgrading joint venture located in Alberta, Canada. In 2024, the company acquired a further 20% interest in AOSP, bringing the company's combined direct and indirect ownership to 90%. The company operates AOSP’s mining and extraction assets, which are located in the Athabasca region near Fort McMurray, Alberta, and include the Muskeg River and Jackpine mines. Shell operates the Scotford Upgrader, including the Quest project, which is located near Fort Saskatchewan, northeast of Edmonton, Alberta, and utilizes LC FINING technology to efficiently hydrocrack residuum to high-quality fuel oils and transportation fuels.

In 2024, a debottlenecking project at the Scotford Upgrader was completed, bringing the gross production capacity of AOSP to approximately 328,000 bbl/d. Shell obtained the Joint Review Panel Approval, along with other associated approvals, in 2013 for a 100,000 bbl/d expansion of the Jackpine Mine, and in 2019, the remaining major application approvals were obtained.

The United Kingdom North Sea

Through the company’s wholly owned subsidiary, CNR International (U.K.) Limited, the company has operated in the North Sea for over 40 years and has developed a significant database, extensive operating experience, and an experienced staff. In 2024, the company produced from 8 crude oil fields.

The northerly fields are centered around the Ninian field, where the company has a 100% operated working interest. The central processing facilities are connected to other fields, including the Strathspey, Columba BD, Columba E, and Lyell fields, where the company operates with working interests of 91.6% to 100%.

In the central portion of the North Sea, the company holds a 100% operated working interest in the T-block (comprising the Tiffany, Toni, and Thelma fields).

The company receives tariff revenue from third parties for the processing of crude oil and natural gas through certain processing facilities.

The decommissioning activities at the Banff and Kyle fields commenced in the second quarter of 2020, with cessation of production occurring in June of 2020. The decommissioning activities are targeted to be substantially complete in 2025.

The company commenced abandonment of the Ninian North Platform in 2017. Dismantling and disposal of the platform topsides were completed in 2021, and jacket removal and dismantling were completed in 2022. These decommissioning activities were substantially completed in 2023, with regulatory close-out reports submitted in 2024.

Strathspey, which is tied back to the Ninian Central platform, ceased production on December 31, 2024, with license relinquishment on January 1, 2025. Initial flushing operations on the Ninian Central platform are planned for the first quarter of 2025.

Cessation of production at the Lyell field, which is tied back to the Ninian South platform, is planned for the first quarter of 2025.

Offshore Africa

Côte d’Ivoire

The company owns interests in two licenses offshore Côte d’Ivoire. The first is a 58.7% operated working interest in the Espoir field in Block CI-26, which is located in water depths ranging from 100 to 700 meters. Production from East Espoir commenced in 2002, and from West Espoir in 2006. Crude oil from the East and West Espoir fields is produced to a dedicated floating production storage and offloading vessel (FPSO), with the associated natural gas delivered onshore for local power generation through a subsea pipeline.

The second is a 57.6% operated working interest in the Baobab field, located in Block CI-40, which is eight kilometers south of the Espoir facilities and located in water depths ranging from 1,000 to 1,400 meters. Production from the Baobab field commenced in 2005. Production at Baobab was temporarily shut in on January 31, 2025, as planned, to allow for the FPSO to be disconnected and towed to drydock for a 245-day project to extend the life of the vessel. The FPSO will then be returned to the field and reconnected, with production expected to resume in the third quarter of 2026.

South Africa

In 2012, the company completed the conversion of its 100% owned oil sub-lease in respect of Block 11B/12B (the ‘Block’) off the southeast coast of South Africa into an exploration right for petroleum for this area. The company subsequently reduced its ownership in the Block to a 20% non-operated working interest through farm-out transactions in 2013 and 2018. Two exploratory wells were drilled by the operator, confirming the discovery of natural gas and condensate on the Block. In 2022, the operator submitted an application to the government to convert the expiring exploration right to a production right. In 2024, the company and two of its partners gave notice of withdrawal from the Block, effective upon grant of the production right and associated transfer of ownership to the remaining partner, anticipated in 2026.

Regulatory Matters

The Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction Regulation (‘TIER’) applies to all of the company’s assets in Alberta (as an alternative to the federal fuel charge).

History

The company was incorporated under the laws of the province of British Columbia in 1973. It was formerly known as AEX Minerals Corporation and changed its name to Canadian Natural Resources Limited in 1975.

Canadian Natural Resources Questions and Answers

Which sectors generate sales and which are the top 3 markets?

Oil and Gas Production: approx. 70% Oil Sands Extraction: approx. 20% Natural Gas Production: approx. 10% TOP 3 Markets: Canada: approx. 50% USA: approx. 30% Asia: approx. 10% Canadian Natural Resources Limited generates the majority of its revenue from oil and gas production, with oil sands ext...

At which locations are the company’s products manufactured?

Production sites of Canadian Natural Resources Limited: Canada: Alberta (oil sands, conventional oil, and natural gas) British Columbia (natural gas) Saskatchewan (conventional oil) United Kingdom: North Sea (offshore oil and gas production) Africa: Ivory Coast (offshore oil production)...

What strategy does Canadian Natural Resources pursue for future growth?

Capital Investments: CAD 4.2 billion (planned for 2025) Focus on Sustainability: Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030 (target) Expansion of Production Capacity: Increase daily production by 5% (planned for 2025) Canadian Natural Resources Limited pursues a strategy aimed at sustainab...

Which raw materials are imported and from which countries?

Imported raw materials/materials: Petroleum technology, machinery, chemicals Main importing countries: USA, Germany, China Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) is a leading company in the oil and gas industry. While the company mainly operates in Canada and extracts its resources there, it impo...

How strong is the company’s competitive advantage?

Market share in Canada: 20% (estimated 2025) Production capacity: 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (2024) R&D investments: 500 million CAD (2024) Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) has a significant competitive advantage in the Canadian oil and gas industry. The company holds...

What is the share of institutional investors and insider buying/selling?

Institutional Investor Share: approx. 70% (estimate 2025) Insider Purchases/Sales: No significant changes (estimate 2025) Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) traditionally has a high proportion of institutional investors, indicating confidence in the company's long-term stability and profitabil...

What percentage market share does Canadian Natural Resources have?

Market share of Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ): approx. 10% (estimated, 2025) Top competitors and their market shares: Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SU): approx. 12% (2025) Imperial Oil Limited (TSX:IMO): approx. 9% (2025) Cenovus Energy Inc. (TSX:CVE): approx. 8% (2025) Husky Energy Inc. (TSX:...

Is Canadian Natural Resources stock currently a good investment?

Revenue growth: 8.5% (2024) Profit growth: 10.2% (2024) Oil and gas production: 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (2024) Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) recorded solid revenue growth of 8.5% in 2024, attributed to increased production and favorable market conditions in the ener...

Does Canadian Natural Resources pay a dividend – and how reliable is the payout?

Dividend yield: 4.5% (2025, estimated) Dividend growth: 7% annually (last 5 years) Canadian Natural Resources Limited (TSX:CNQ) is known for its reliable dividend policy. In recent years, the company has consistently paid dividends and has even been able to increase them regularly. The estimated div...

Canadian Natural Resources Stock Value

Canadian Natural Resources Company Info

Analyst Price Target

Top growth stocks in the energy sector (5Y.)

What does Canadian Natural Resources do?

Canadian Natural Resources Questions and Answers

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